Packers vs. Browns raffle

TLDR: You won because you were on the right side of a lopsided bet.

In this "Predictor" game, all the points risked on the losing option are collected into a prize pool. You and everyone else who picked the Browns split that entire prize pool. The reason your payout was so massive is that a huge number of points were risked on the Browns' opponent. Your 50-point risk was a very small piece of the winning side, but it was a big enough piece to earn you a proportional share of a very large pool.

Detailed Explanation

The key to understanding your massive payout is that the "Predictor" system isn't like a traditional sportsbook where odds are set. Instead, it's a pari-mutuel system, a type of peer-to-peer betting where the payout is determined entirely by how many points are risked on each outcome.

Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of how your win worked:

1. You Made a Winning Prediction You risked 50 GG Points on the Browns. Since they won the game, your prediction was correct. The 50 points you risked were returned to you as part of your total payout.

2. The Prize Pool Was Created The entire prize pool for this event was made up of the total points risked by everyone who bet on the losing team (the Browns' opponent). The larger the total amount risked on the losing team, the bigger the prize pool becomes.

3. You Won a Proportional Share of the Prize Pool Everyone who correctly predicted the Browns' victory split the prize pool. Your share was proportional to the amount you risked. So, if you risked 50 points and the total risked on the winning side was 500 points, you would get 10% (50/500=10%) of the prize pool.

4. The Fee Was Applied The rules state that there is a 10% fee on your net winnings. This means the fee is not applied to the initial 50 points you risked, but only to the profit you made.

Here’s the breakdown of the 1407 points you received:

• Total received: 1407 points
• Original amount risked: 50 points (this is returned to you)
• Net winnings (after fee): 1407−50=1357 points

Since the 10% fee was already deducted from your winnings, we can figure out what you won before the fee was applied. The 1357 points you took home represent 90% of your total winnings (100%−10%).

• Winnings before fee: 1357/0.90=1507.78 points.
• The fee you paid: 1507.78×0.10=150.78 points.

So, you won approximately 1507.78 points, a 10% fee of 150.78 was deducted, and you received 1357 in profit plus your original 50 points back for a total of 1407.

The fact that you won over 1,400 points from a 50-point risk means that the prize pool was enormous. This implies that the vast majority of players and points were risked on the Browns' opponent, making your small bet incredibly valuable.