AM3 Reroll Math

While contemplating do some rerolls I always like to look at value per roll.  Lets assume that odds are terrible and you really only pull 84s.

11 rerolls is 30800.  11 84s get you a 90.  At 4 to 5 TP ratio you are paying 123k to 154k for every 90 you make.  So you pay double for each 90.  So making a 94 will run you anywhere from 861k to 1.078 mil.  

Now lets say you do 12 rerolls and can acutally pull a 90.  

12 rerolls is 33,600.  11 84 get you another 90 so you end up with 2 90s.  At 4 to 5 TP ratio you are paying 134k to 168k  which is a little more in line to what you would pay to buy the 90s off the AH.  So making a 94 will run you anywhere from 469k to 588 which is close to market price.

So then the question becomes can you pull more that one 90 every 12 rolls?  If not you lose.  If you can you are even.  If you think you can get 2 90s every 12 pulls you are well ahead.  Anyone who is at home try rerolls with any luck?

Oh I like posts like this. 

Its almost always going to be against your favor in rerolls or packs. Sometimes theres boosted/errors that can help pull things but thats super rare/glitched.

Last season I rolled 2 TVP and both times I got 2 plat for the money I spent to get the training for it. Worked out evenly lol

I did 3 100k rolls @4.5 per

• 90 all 84s
• 4 90s all 84s
• 94, 5 90s n 84s

Obviously luck has a big part, but all in all I'd say the rolls aren't that bad. Definitely helps if ya got a lot of training to roll to offset the terrible ones like my 1st.

I did a little over 100k in rerolls= 400-500k market value.

94: 1 (Tucker)

90: 5

84: 31

Got about 975k back in market value so I'm estimating my profit is about 450k.

Just spent 140k in training for 48 rolls..

I got 6 90s 

The rest 84s lol 😢

kaotikords said:

Oh I like posts like this. 

Its almost always going to be against your favor in rerolls or packs. Sometimes theres boosted/errors that can help pull things but thats super rare/glitched.

Last season I rolled 2 TVP and both times I got 2 plat for the money I spent to get the training for it. Worked out evenly lol

The house always wins. but just like casinos there are always some games or machines that deliver the possibility for better returns.  That is why I always like looking at rerolls just to see the value in them.  Case in point the last two AKA packs., one was 15k TP and the next was 22k TP.  Both guaranteed a 90 plus.  Now the second one you had a possibility of pulling a 94 overall but you also could lose much more if you pulled the mininum.  The first pack was the safer bet even if the ceiling was lower.  Obviosuly it boils down to luck like with any pack.